Swing State Odds
- The Sunshine State accounts for a total of 29 of all Electoral College votes. Another big swing state is Ohio where Trump is the favorite with odds of -200 to win and Biden is the underdog with odds of +150. Ohio has 18 votes given to them by the College.
- My battleground state polling for PoliticalIQ.com has consistently shown the president running a few points behind where he needs to be. In the three midwestern states that put the president over the top in 2016, my final polls show Biden leading by seven in Michigan, six in Wisconsin and six in Pennsylvania.
- Colorado (9 EVs) and Virginia (13 EVs) have been swing states in recent elections, but both are solidly blue according to the latest odds and polls. Elsewhere, Arizona, which hasn't voted Democrat.
- Swing state dominance, coupled with the control of safer states, put the electoral odds in Biden’s favour. Early voting, mail-in voting.
Known as “God’s Waiting Room,” this state is currently considered a swing state for the 2020 election, and the data provided by The Guardian shows that Biden clings to a tiny 1.7% margin.
S&P 500 may lead Nikkei 225 Higher as Biden Wins Key Swing States
US equity futures climbed as Biden took Michigan - a key swing state. Rising odds of a Democratic presidency boosted sentiment. The Nikkei 225 index look set to trade higher following strong US leads.
US ELECTION, S&P 500, Nikkei 225 OUTLOOK:
US stocks were in ‘risk-on’ mode as election results leaned to a Biden-win, divided Congress The British Pound fell ahead of BoE meeting, as traders anticipated further easing measuresNikkei 225 index may trade higher, setting a positive tone for Asia-Pacific stocksUS election, S&P 500 Index and Asia-Pacific markets:
Swing State Odds College Football
All three major US indices soared on Wednesday as the odds swung to favor Joe Biden after he took Michigan - a key swing state. Biden has likely pocketed 264 out of the 270 electoral votes that are required to win the election. Traders are eyeing the vote counts in Nevada, which has 6 electoral votes, for the final results. Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones rallied 3.85%, 2.20% and 1.34% respectively overnight.
Risk assets were in a rally mode, with equity futures across the Asia-Pacific posit to open broadly higher. The haven-linked US Dollar fell alongside the VIX volatility index. Crude oil prices rose for a third day on a weaker US Dollar, falling stockpiles and hope that Russia and OPEC+ may rein production. The British Pound was among the worst-performing G10 currencies today as market anticipated further easing measures to be announced in the BoE meeting later today.
2020 US election results
© ZUUonline SGThe US has registered 92,660 new coronavirus cases on November 3rd, marking the third highest daily count behind October 30th. Market focus will likely shift back to the fundamental elements and how the government plan to handle the second pandemic wave after the election. More monetary and fiscal support might be needed to weather through this crisis. Friday’s FOMC meeting and US non-farm payroll data are critical to watch out for.
On the macro front, BoE interest rate decision and US weekly jobless claims are among the top events besides the US election results. Find out more on our economic calendar.
Sector-wise, last night saw a fairly balanced sectoral pattern, with 46.7% of the index’s constituent ending higher. Healthcare (+4.45%), communication services (+4.25%) and information technology (+3.83%) were doing the heavy-lifting, whereas materials (-1.65%) and utilities (-1.60%) were lagging behind.
S&P 500 Index Sector Performance 04-11-2020
© ZUUonline SGSwing State Betting Odds
Technically, the S&P 500 index rebounded with strong upward momentum this week. An immediate resistance level can be found at 3,470 - the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (chart below). Failing to break this level may result in a pullback with an eye on the 20- and 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) lines as immediate support levels. In the medium term, the S&P 500 index’ bull trend appears to remains intact. Holding above the 100-Day SMA may pave way for more upside potential.
Swing State Odds
S&P 500 Index - Daily Chart
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Nikkei 225 Index Outlook:
Technically, the Nikkei 225 index has rebounded after entering into a period of consolidation last week. The index attempt to break the upper ceiling of the “Rising Wedge” (chart below) that formed since June. 24,000 also serves as a key resistance level as the index has failed three times to break it from December 2019 to February 2020. The overall trend remains bullish-biased.
Swing State Odds Golf
Nikkei 225 Index - Daily Chart
© ZUUonline SGThis commentary is kindly contributed by Margaret Yang, DailyFX Strategist